From Trade War to Real War: How Solar and EVA Markets are Navigating Chaos

EVA producers and converters have certainly had hands full in recent months navigating solar trade wars and weak demand, but an actual war raging in the Middle East has turned everything upside down. Prices of all polymers, including EVA, have shot up across the globe starting from the first week of March. In North America, EVA pricing is entering a period of sharp upward movement. Prices are expected to increase by hundreds of dollars per ton in the near term, reflecting a rapid change in market dynamics. Within just two weeks, many converters have shifted from purchasing EVA on a hand-to-mouth basis, anticipating continued downward pressure seen through most of 2025, to actively securing volumes in advance to ensure supply. With Asian EVA producers unable to entertain export orders, even limited import volumes are no longer available as a backstop, contributing to further domestic supply constraints and reinforcing upward price pressure.

Recent countervailing duty (CVD) determinations by the US on PV cells produced in the Asian countries (India, Indonesia, and the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Laos)) highlight a growingly protectionist trade environment. In August last year, the US had invalidated the two-year moratorium on solar tariffs for imports from Southeast Asia introduced by former President Joe Biden. The recent decision was another step to curb indirect imports of Chinese solar cells or modules. The US has been maintaining strong tariff and non-tariff barriers against direct solar imports from China since 2014.

India has gradually restricted solar imports, mainly for government-backed projects, by developing its own registry of mandated solar photovoltaic products and their producers, known as the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM). The EU also has its non-tariff barrier against Chinese imports, although they are not as restrictive. These developments are drawing attention across the solar and EVA markets and influence how market participants approach sourcing and pricing as conditions continue to shift.

China continues to expand its EVA capacity. In 2025, China added 900,000 tons/year of new capacity, lifting total supply to approximately 3.8 million tons/year. This expansion provided strong feedstock support to downstream sectors and helped underpin growth in key applications such as photovoltaics and foam, while reinforcing China’s position as the world’s largest EVA producer and advancing domestic self-sufficiency. While a major part of new Chinese capacity was planned to cater to the strongly growing solar market, the project developers have to now rethink their strategy after the gradual withdrawal of government support for the solar industry, making it more market oriented. Last year, it changed the solar electricity pricing mechanism to market-based bidding. Additionally, after 1^st April 2026, Chinese solar module exporters will not receive any export VAT rebate, which was 13% until December 2024 and 9% after that. These are unlikely to be major roadblocks, as China is expected to remain the largest producer, exporter, and consumer of solar modules in the coming years.

Although many of the Chinese EVA plants that were supposed to come onstream in 2025 have been delayed, the domestic EVA market is likely to remain strong because of China’s robust footwear, packaging, and adhesive markets. China’s EVA capacity growth is expected to accelerate in 2026, with eight units slated for startup or expansion and roughly 1.09 million tons/year of additional capacity. This expansion is likely to further drive production toward higher-value, more differentiated EVA grades.

EVA market dynamics are changing rapidly thanks to evolving trade barriers, different government policies, and geopolitical issues.   Published since 2012 and powered by industry experts with decades of experience, Townsend’s EVA Market Intelligence Monthly provides a critical understanding of the key factors impacting in the various EVA market segments and end uses along with regional pricing by grade (VA content) with LDPE & VAM for key applications.  Contact customercare@townsendsolutions.com to learn more.

‍